Select a storm
Water level around the storm, relative to each island's p50 elevation
Daily maximum water level minus the island's p50 elevation, from 5 days before to 5 days after the
storm's closest approach to that island's gauge. Above zero means water over half the island's dry land.
What pushed the water at one island
Bars: each forcing's push in cm relative to an average day of that season and year.
Diamonds: observed rise above the seasonal baseline. A gap between the bar total and the diamond is water
the local measurements don't explain (remote surge, waves, or model error).
Across all storms: what makes a storm bring more water
Storm-event model fitted to every storm passing within 500 km of a gauge (one row per storm and
gauge, gauge effects held fixed). Effect on the storm's peak water level, 95% intervals.