Overwash Risk Explorer · Texas Colonial Nesting Islands

SSH: Neutral · 0.60× baseline

Forcing State

Elevation Threshold

Attribution Mode

Actions

Bay Filter

Regime Reference

Regime + StormRate Ratio
High SSH + Storm4.58×
High SSH + Calm3.55×
Neutral + Calm0.60× (ref)
Low + Calm0.24×
Circle color = q (white→orange→red) Circle size = E[days] Galveston Matagorda Corpus Christi Upper LM Lower LM

— Select an island —

Bay system
Elevation (p50)
Baseline q (p50)
Baseline E[days]
Scenario q (approx)
Random intercept

Seasonal exceedance curve p(e,j) — selected island

Shapley attribution |φ̄| — nesting season

Scenario risk — all islands (q at selected threshold)

Risk table

IslandBayp50 qE[d]Δ scen.